On the Shifting Power Dynamics in Lebanese Politics; Turning a New Page.

For decades, the term "resistance" has been a cornerstone of Lebanese political rhetoric, particularly gaining traction following Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Its conspicuous absence from the inaugural speech of President Joseph Aoun marks a significant shift in the power dynamics that have long governed Lebanon.

This omission signals the end of a period where militias dominated the state and society, akin to the disappearance of the phrase "unity of path and destiny," once a tool of Syrian influence for legitimizing its control over Lebanon, as discussed in works like Andrea B. Rugh's “International Influence Over State Behavior in the Middle East”

Language in the realm of politics is a critical tool for shaping power and reinforcing dominance, a concept explored by Antonio Gramsci in his theory of cultural hegemony. The use of specific terms and slogans helps regimes control narrative and perception, effectively shaping political consciousness and societal norms regardless of the underlying reality.

In controlling language and narrative, as highlighted by scholars like Michel Foucault in “The Archaeology of Knowledge”, those in power maintain their grip on reality. Thus, dismantling the established slogans and rhetoric of rigid ideologies becomes an act of liberating consciousness and reorganizing power relations. This political shift in Lebanon could only emerge after significant regional transformations, notably since the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation on October 7, 2023, followed by the unprecedented conflict impacting Gaza and Lebanon, which led to the downturn of Hamas and Hezbollah and paved the way for the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

Hezbollah now confronts a pivotal moment as it grapples with the aftermath of these events, losing much of its domestic legitimacy and struggling to justify its armed presence—a challenge echoed in the scholarship on the implications of military setbacks on non-state actors as Jeremy M. Sharp's analyses suggests on political movements in the Middle East.

The failure of this so-called "resistance" to protect Lebanon was not a surprise to its critics, who have long questioned its claims. Now, even Hezbollah's base recognizes the unsustainable cost of its regional entanglements and proxy wars, realizing they are the foremost victims of projects that purport to represent them. This is reminiscent of the arguments in Azmi Bishara's critiques of political legitimacy in the Middle East.

These developments provided an unprecedented platform for a broader Lebanese discourse that had been stifled by Hezbollah’s ideological dominance to finally become public and official, as expressed under the parliamentary dome. President Joseph Aoun 's speech reflects a national sentiment weary of false slogans and the burdensome legacy of an alleged resistance, framing his election as not just political, but a response to the urgent need for leadership capable of institutional rebuilding, and restoration of lost trust.

There is a pervasive belief in Lebanon that real recovery is possible. This involves addressing war destruction, improving administrative and judicial efficiency, reducing sectarian divides exacerbated by Hezbollah’s alliances with problematic political currents, and most importantly, implementing international mandates on disarmament, restoring Lebanon’s regional position.

Nonetheless, President Joseph Aoun faces daunting challenges, foremost among them the dismantling of Hezbollah's military apparatus as part of the ceasefire agreement and ensuring Lebanon transitions to a "post-militia Middle East." Secondly, restoring popular and international confidence in state institutions is crucial, as detailed in development studies like those by Thomas Carothers regarding rebuilding governance in fragmented states, opening pathways for substantial economic recovery with regional and international backing.

Lastly, reorganizing Lebanon’s internal political landscape to facilitate parliamentary elections in 2026 is intended to reflect a new political equilibrium, without exclusion or dominance that could reignite tensions, reflecting the challenges discussed in Chibli Mallat’s “Introduction to Middle Eastern Law” regarding governance transformation.

The election of Joseph Aoun officially heralds Lebanon’s entry into a new phase, demonstrating a regional and international, as well as a public rejection of Hezbollah’s longstanding influence. This presents an unprecedented chance to move beyond a burden that has weighed on Lebanon since the "Cairo Agreement of 1969." It lays the groundwork for a future of renewed state sovereignty and a modern democratic vision on peace-building and governance in post-conflict regions.

S.N