On Comoros: Navigating History, Diversity, and Elections

The Republic of the Comoros has experienced more than 20 revolutions or attempted coups since its independence from France in 1975 until 1999. These events occurred amidst continuous efforts from the archipelago located in the southwest of the Indian Ocean to enhance political stability and utilize its tourism potential to alleviate poverty.

The archipelago consists of four main islands, with three of them gaining independence from France: Grande Comore (Ngazidja), Anjouan (Ndzuwani), and Moheli (Mwali). The fourth island, Mayotte, voted to remain under French rule. Mayotte, in reality, is a small archipelago with an area of 376 square kilometers, comprising two main islands: Grande-Terre and Petite-Terre. It officially became a French colony in June 1843, and slavery was abolished in 1846. Mayotte remains a source of dispute between the governments of Moroni and Paris, despite more than 20 non-binding resolutions from the United Nations. Since 2011, Mayotte has officially been the 101st French department, within the category known as "Overseas Territories." Former Comorian President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi stated that the "four-legged cow (Comoros) has become crippled and unable to move forward."

Ethnically, the population of the Comoros is a complex mix, including descendants of Arab traders, Malaysian immigrants, and various African ethnic groups. Economically, the country faces a shortage of natural resources, with vanilla, cloves, and perfume essence being the main exports, exposing its economy to market fluctuations. Consequently, remittances from its citizens abroad constitute a significant source of income.

The history of the Comoros dates back to the eighth century when they were first settled, and from then until the eleventh century, Islam spread across the islands, increasing their importance as trade routes in East Africa.

In 1503, Portuguese explorers reached the islands, and thereafter, the islands became a supply point for ships traveling to the Portuguese fortress in Mozambique. They remained so until the French established the first colonial rule in the Comoros in 1843, following their seizure of the island of Mayotte.

Subsequently, in 1912, the islands became a province of the French colony of Madagascar. In 1974, three islands voted for independence from France, but Mayotte voted to remain. In 1975, the Comoros declared independence, and Ahmed Abdallah assumed the presidency. However, he was quickly ousted in a coup with the assistance of French mercenary Bob Denard, and Prince Said Mohamed Jaffar took over.

In 1976, Ali Soilih took power in a coup attempting to transform the country into a secular socialist republic. However, in 1978, Soilih was killed, and President Ahmed Abdallah returned to power in a coup supported by France and led by Denard. Abdallah's regime was characterized by authoritarian rule and religious strictness, leading to the country being renamed the Federal Islamic Republic of the Comoros.

In 1989, Ahmed Abdallah was assassinated by the presidential guard led by mercenary Denard, who had orchestrated the coup. However, France quickly intervened to evacuate Denard. In 1990, Said Mohamed Djohar was elected president. Nevertheless, he was again removed in 1995 in a coup led by Denard himself, not supported by France, prompting Denard to surrender.

In 1996, Mohamed Abdoulkader Taki was elected president, and he established a constitution that expanded the president's powers and made Islam the basis of the law. In 1997, the islands of Anjouan and Moheli declared their independence. In the following year, 1998, President Taki died of a heart attack, and Acting President Tadjidine Ben Said Massounde took his place. Massounde signed the autonomy agreement in Madagascar in April 1999, but Anjouan and Moheli representatives rejected it, leading to violent protests on the main island.

In 1999, Massounde was ousted in a coup led by the Chief of Staff of the Army, Colonel Azali Assoumani. The conflict continued between the three islands until 2001 when voters approved a new constitution that endorsed the rotation of power among the three islands.

Comoros is set to hold elections on January 14, 2024. These elections are widely anticipated to secure a fourth term for President Azali Assoumani, a former military officer facing accusations from his opponents of suppressing dissent in the archipelago nation in the Indian Ocean. With just under one million people in the country, almost 340,000 individuals are eligible to cast their votes. President Assoumani, aged 65 and having served as the rotating chairperson of the African Union for the past year, will be competing against five opponents. Despite claims from opposition leaders of electoral bias favoring the ruling party, the electoral commission insists on the transparency of the election.

Concerns about the fairness of the election have been raised by regional observer missions, including the African Union, citing irregularities and credibility issues in the 2019 election. The 2019 vote was marked by constitutional reforms eliminating the requirement for the presidency to rotate among the country's three main islands every five years. This change allowed Assoumani to seek re-election and led to months of sometimes violent protests.

The Comoros Islands, consisting of Anjouan, Grande Comore, and Moheli, have faced persistent poverty and political instability, witnessing around 20 coups or attempted coups since gaining independence from France in 1975. The country is a significant source of irregular migration to the nearby French island of Mayotte, historically part of the Comoros. Under the new system, Assoumani, who initially came to power in a 1999 coup, stepped down in 2002, and later won the election 14 years later, would be required to leave office in 2029.

Critics argue that Assoumani's government has cracked down on dissent since 2019. Former President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, in office from 2006 to 2011, was sentenced to life in prison in November 2022 on charges related to corruption and high treason. Political protests have been consistently prohibited for security reasons.

The main opposition leader, Mohamed Ali Soilihi, currently living in exile in France, has called for an election boycott, asserting that democracy only exists in President Azali's deceptive rhetoric. Despite the boycott calls, Assoumani denies political prosecution and is determined to proceed with the election successfully. On the campaign trail, he emphasizes accomplishments such as the construction of roads, hospitals, and other infrastructure during his tenure.

As Comoros stands on the precipice of another election, it grapples with a history marked by political turbulence, diverse ethnic roots, and geopolitical intricacies. President Azali Assoumani's quest for a fourth term is shadowed by allegations of dissent suppression, reflecting a broader narrative of democratic challenges. Whether these elections will usher in a new era of stability or deepen existing complexities remains to be seen. As the nation looks towards its future, it does so against the backdrop of a rich past, shaped by coups, reforms, and the resilience of its people.